China takes lead as global polluter

[Melidan]

Originally Posted by The Corporal

Two words (not actually related to the book, Melidan): Arc Light. Good luck to China in stopping the train of B-52s, B-1s, and B-2s that would rain conventional weapons on their manufacturing centers should we get into a conflict.

Oh, agreed! We would still kill them in any conflict!


Ahhh... A good ol' conventional war. Those were the days, heh?

[Sinatra]

This really is a fascinating topic of discussion and we could play out scenarios all day but we must look at what we know.

You are absolutely right Mel. The key thing in my mind is that to become the leading superpower you must have three key elements. Military strength, economical strength, political influence and you could throw military allies in there perhaps as well.

Whilst China may well gain strengthened military capabilities or even economic supremacy it won’t last and China will never posses all the three key factors to become the leading superpower, it may posses one or two but I cannot see it maintaining all the ingredients. China is so dependant upon western imports and exports that it doesn’t matter if China spent $10 trillion a year on its military, it cannot mess with the west because it would economically collapse. One trade embargo from the major European powers or U.S and its economy would fall apart and it wouldn’t be able to support military spending. You do not bite the hand that feeds you.

If we look at China politically and look at the controversy over Tibet and the Olympic games. The international community has frowned china over a damn sport, think what would happen if a major issue ever arose I cannot see China finding much international support.

As long as the United States makes sure that China is financial dependant upon U.S business and the U.S doesn’t destroy its relations with European allies the U.S will remain the dominant superpower for many years to come.

China could push its military spending through the roof, it could work its people to death and become that top economic power but at what cost? China are massively increasing spending in order to match the U.S which is pretty much at spending tick over at the moment, if China were to initiate an arms race then it would eventually collapse as the soviet union did. You cannot spend 15, 20% of GDP on defence for very long and with the U.S spending 4% a year, China has a very long way to go to become top dog.

If we once again looking at cold war style tensions to arise I can see it being very one sided. China is extremely large in all respects and the only powerful nation it shares any similarities with is Russia, and it would have to be extreme set of circumstances for Russia to put its neck out for China at detriment to European and U.S relations. Russia is not the same soviet style government of 20 years ago.

The U.S is undoubtedly the biggest military power in the world. The EU is debatably the biggest economic power in the world. India is undoubtedly among the fastest growing economies and powers in the world and above all they are democratic with close links to the west. As long as these key factors remain stable and united China is no threat.

You are right Mel that China is dangerous on its own. One on one China would match anyone, the problems arise as in CN. The mutual defence fact web and the dependency nations have on one another.

The soviets had the right idea, they tried to be self sustainable and isolated. They were dangerous because they didn’t need anyone military wise or economic wise. All bar a few sugar shipments to Cuba they were self sustainable. China lacks that key factor and even if it did have that, it is hard to sustain as the soviet union proved. Without either self sustainability or one hell of a set of allies no nation can be seen as a serious threat to world peace.

In the current climate China will have an ever increasing power base however with little means to vent this new found strength. It would take major mistakes from the U.S to put itself at risk.

China hasn’t the strength or allies that the Soviet union did nor does it have the ingrained paranoia the USSR did to initiate another cold war. I strongly believe that as long as the current balance of power remains then notion of conflict or tensions between China and the U.S is nonsense.

If events happen and things change then we can re-evaluate but for now you can sleep tight my American buddies, you’re still top dog. Just don’t win to many gold medals this summer just to be safe.

[Melidan]

Originally Posted by Sinatra

If events happen and things change then we can re-evaluate but for now you can sleep tight my American buddies, you’re still top dog. Just don’t win to many gold medals this summer just to be safe.

lol

Good points all around, and to an extent I believe your right. However take these facts into consideration... For years China has been expanding its oil interests around the world, Venezuela, Cuba, Libya, Sudan.. They are going everywhere and anywhere to drill. They are doing whatever they have to to improve their industrial, manufacturing and energy base (at obvious neglect to the enviroment).

Also consider;

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The Chinese government has hinted that it may liquidate its vast holding of US Treasury bonds, potentially triggering a crash in the dollar, if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation, The Telegraph reported.

The paper said that two Chinese officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning, for the first time, that China may use its 1.33 bln usd of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress.

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited...fx3997945.html

It's a year old article yes, but China still holds those U.S. Treasury notes and could use them to wreck our economy if and when they choose to.

Their equipment and tactics are out-dated, yes. But they are upgrading at a fast clip. While i'm not worried that there'll be chicom tanks rolling down Michigan Ave.. I do worry they will be itching for a fight in the next 15-30 years and I have a feeling they will be looking at us.

[Sinatra]

Good points once again mate and you are right about the ability to mutuall destroy one anothers economies, in my thinking I believe that yes they could do damage however it would hit them worse than it would us. I will be excited to see where this tale goes. I think the west must prepare and not make mistakes or get slack, if we can achieve this we should be ok however 30 years is a period of time to long to project.

Lets see where this baby takes us.

[Villalba]

Fact is, The United States cannot live without China, because then who would make cheap stuff?

And China cannot live without the US, because then who would buy all their cheap stuff?

[Tox]

The Africans could make the cheap stuff and the Europeans could buy it, LOL...

Back to the point, The kyoto treaty became pointless the minute that the USA pulled out, the entire EU doesn't produce as much CO2 as the USA and the EU is the only place where emmitions are acctually being activaly reduced.

The only way we will save this planet will be when the US realises that it doesn't own the world and it actions have implications on others, I mean for years the green house effect and the effects of pollution have been taught to kids (here anyway) but the US government still doesn't offically support the Green house theory they still believe that it is just a theory with no proof...... I mean its not just coincedence whats going on in the world, but the simply fact is the US doesn't want to waste the money on bring its self up to spec and as for the Chineese they can't afford to bring themselves up to spec....

[Lincongrad]

Honestly, China and the US are so economically codependent that there will never be a hot war between the two countries. A cold war or more surrogate wars (see vietnam, korea) are much more likely.

Also, the Chinese brand of comminusm is not working at all. It's why they're so backward. Every capitalist and democratic reform that they've made has improved the country.

[The Corporal]

Originally Posted by Tox

The Africans could make the cheap stuff and the Europeans could buy it, LOL...

Back to the point, The kyoto treaty became pointless the minute that the USA pulled out, the entire EU doesn't produce as much CO2 as the USA and the EU is the only place where emmitions are acctually being activaly reduced.

The only way we will save this planet will be when the US realises that it doesn't own the world and it actions have implications on others, I mean for years the green house effect and the effects of pollution have been taught to kids (here anyway) but the US government still doesn't offically support the Green house theory they still believe that it is just a theory with no proof...... I mean its not just coincedence whats going on in the world, but the simply fact is the US doesn't want to waste the money on bring its self up to spec and as for the Chineese they can't afford to bring themselves up to spec....

Wrong. All wrong. The Kyoto treaty is pointless because it does nothing to restrict the emissions of China and India. Both nations could afford to bring themselves to the level of the EU if they would stop nuclear weapons research and their space programs (why exactly does India need a manned space program when millions of their citizens are starving to death because they can't stop breeding???) - the tens of billions of dollars in yearly trade deficit between us and them help too. The point is, they think that because the U.S. and Europe enjoyed nearly 200 years of environmental ignorance they should be able to do the same. Any efforts to improve environmental efforts in the U.S. (which would be the nail in the coffin for an already shaky economy) would be negated by further growth in both India and China. It's not worth doing a thing unless we can get all of the major polluters to do the same.

I think we could survive without China's cheap crap (by reopening factories in this country and buying wooden toys from within the country and from Europe - I don't want Ebola all over the cheap crap we could buy from Africa ) whereas China would not do so well if the U.S., Japan, Australia, and EU cut off exports. The one flaw in China's possible plan to crash the dollar is that nobody would trade with them again if they did so. Let China's government think about what a few hundred million starving people have to say after American and Canadian wheat stops pouring into their country....

[Melidan]

True dat Corporal... Are you my twin?!

[Zagato]

Hey guys,
Cut that out.

No one wants to destroy the other. Drop the war/red paranoia please.